Napoli given a 2% title chance after losing more ground than anyone
After 11 rounds, Football Rankings' simulations make Inter clear favourites at 49% and give leaders Lazio 9%. Napoli, tenth on 15 points, trail even Como.
The Football Rankings algorithm gives Napoli a 2% chance of winning the Scudetto (the Serie A title) after 11 rounds. Six sides rank above them: Inter on 49%, Gasperini's Roma on 20%, Como on 11%, Lazio on 9%, Milan on 6% and Juventus on 3%. Juventus beat Napoli 2-0 on 1 November.
The worse figure is the comparison with last season. Napoli finished second with 76 points, and no side has lost more ground since. Gattuso's Lazio have gone the other way: they top the table on 29 points, 14 more than at this stage last year. On Sunday 8 November at the Maradona, Napoli held them only because of an own goal by Pedraza.
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A 2% chance does not rule Napoli out mathematically, but it matches the table. Napoli have 15 points. That is nine short of fourth place, the target Allegri set, and 14 off the top. The title is not the issue now. The issue is to stop losing ground. Torino visit the Maradona on Saturday 21 November at 20:45 CET (19:45 UK, 14:45 ET), and those three points matter more than any simulation.
Source: AreaNapoli
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