Opta's model rates Napoli unlucky yet still leaves them out of the top four

Four and a half points. That is how far Napoli fall short of what their play has earned, according to Opta's Expected Points. The model simulates each match from its expected goals and works out the points a side should have won. No other big club is owed as much, not even Juventus, who are in the same position. Add those four and a half points to Napoli's 15 and, on Opta's table as it stood on Wednesday 11 November, they would be in the Champions League places.

The alternative table turns the real one upside down. Inter would be top on 26.5 points, ahead of Roma, who in reality have collected far more than they deserved. Juventus and Napoli come next. Lazio, top of the actual table on 29 points and still unbeaten, are well ahead of their numbers. So is an equally clinical Milan. On expected points, both would miss out on Europe altogether. At the bottom, Monza, Fiorentina and Venezia struggle.

The projection is the problem

The second part of the model is the one that should worry Napoli. Opta projects the current trends over the rest of the season and again has Inter as champions, on around 81 points. Roma, Como and Lazio would join them in the Champions League. Milan, Juventus and Napoli would miss out. Monza, Udinese and Venezia would go down, with Parma and Lecce narrowly safe.

So even the model that rates Napoli the unluckiest of the big clubs does not have them fourth in May. Fourth place is the target Allegri has set.

This is not the first time an algorithm has held up a mirror during this international break. The title simulations had already given Napoli a 2% chance. This time, though, the number feels like a let-off.

"We deserved more"

That is exactly what the fanbase does not want to hear after the 1-1 draw with Lazio. At the Maradona, all six of Napoli's shots on target were saved. But in the first half Lazio had 12 shots to Napoli's 5. And the defeat to Juventus in Turin came after Marianucci was sent off. Expected goals explain part of the gap. They do not close it.

The question is a simple one. Even with luck on their side, Napoli would have 19.5 points, still below the 24 Milan actually have. How much of this season can still be put down to bad luck? Napoli are 9 points off fourth place and 14 off the top. Their 15 points from 11 matchdays equal the lowest total of the De Laurentiis era, set in 2007/08. No algorithm has recalculated those numbers.

Torino come to the Maradona on Saturday 21 November at 20:45 CET (19:45 UK, 14:45 ET). It is Napoli's first home game since the supporters' protest. They do not need to create more than they score. They need to win.